Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussah Dankwah, has clarified that the organisation’s latest parliamentary projections reflect how constituencies could vote if elections were held today, rather than a prediction of the 2028 election results.
Speaking on Globe TV’s News Lens on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, Dankwah said the model currently puts the National Democratic Congress at 154 seats and the New Patriotic Party at 100, with two seats tied and 20 others unallocated because respondents declined to disclose their voting preferences.
He stressed that the figures represent a snapshot of current electoral conditions and could change as the parties select candidates and voters reassess their choices.
“This is not to say that in 2028, NDC will get 154 — no. We are saying that, per this calculation, this is where they are,” he said.
Dankwah explained that the model combines respondents’ stated voting intentions with other constituency-level indicators to assess the likelihood of a seat being won by either party.
These include the president’s approval rating, constituents’ assessment of their MP’s performance, respondents’ party affiliations and their outlook for the next 12 months.
The model then places constituencies into categories ranging from strong support for either party to likely or leaning seats, with closely contested constituencies classified as toss-ups.
“Toss-up means that we can’t tell the winner because the number is so tight,” he explained.
Dankwah said further analysis would be needed before the 20 unallocated seats could be assigned to either party.
“You can’t add the 20 to NDC or add it to NPP without further analysis down the line,” he said.
Dankwah cautioned against interpreting the figures as a straightforward calculation in which either party retains all its existing seats and simply adds new ones.
According to him, the model indicates that the NDC could win some constituencies currently held by the NPP, while the NPP could also take seats from the NDC.
“There are, in the 154, new seats that NDC is taking from NPP from the model if it is held today,” he said. “And from the same model, there are seats that NPP is taking where NDC is having today.”
He declined to identify the constituencies but said the findings pointed to electoral vulnerabilities in both parties.
Dankwah said parliamentary primaries could significantly affect the projections, particularly where incumbent MPs lose their bids to contest again.
New candidates, he explained, could improve a party’s prospects in constituencies where the current data suggests it is at risk of defeat.
“Some MPs may lose their primaries and there’ll be new faces, and the new faces may change a seat from being lost to being won,” he said.
Global InfoAnalytics would continue updating the assessment as it gathered more information from constituencies, he added, with a final prediction to be released closer to the election.
“What we are giving out today is not a prediction of 2028. It’s just an assessment of where we are if it is held today,” Dankwah said.
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